Sunday’s derby was the latest installment in the chapter of “the contrasting fortunes at North London.” A year on since Jose Mourinho took over the reign of the flailing and disjointed Tottenham Hotspur side, he has managed to take them to the top of the table as we near Christmas. However a few kilometers across North London, things can’t seem to get any worse. Mikel Arteta’s 11 months stint as Arsenal manager has been a tale of contrasting trends. After successful FA cup and community shield glory at the end of last season, Arsenal are now languishing at the bottom half of the table. Their most recent 2-0 defeat at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, which welcomed 2000 Spurs fans for the first time in 10 months, means this has been their worst start to a top flight season for 39 years.
The graphics below shows league positions of Arsenal and Spurs after 11 matches over the last 10 seasons.
Jose’s Tottenham
Hope. A glimmer of hope is starting to build upon at Tottenham. Hope, that could very well lead to an end to their decades long yearning for the title.
Jose Mourinho has successfully recreated his “second season magic” at the club and the side has played scintillating football this season. Spurs have been the best team during transitions in the league, and the numbers prove it. Out of 23 goals scored this season an impressive 13 have resulted directly from counter attacks, more than any other side in the division. The two goals at the derby were too scored at the end of two brisk counters initiated by Son and Lo Celso respectively.
Son and Kane’s partnership has been absolutely sensational. The duo has combined, where one assists another, to score 10 goals. And to no one’s surprise both the goals vs Arsenal involved the same pair yet again. In fact, Harry Kane currently tops the chart for most assists with 10, already assisting more than he had managed in the last three seasons combined and Heung-Min Son has the second most number goals this season. Accompanied by their ruthless finishing, very few defenses have successfully been able to stop their attacking firepower. Their goal conversion rate from shots attempted ranks amongst the best in the league, with 18.8 % of all their shots ending at the back of the net. The two goals from six attempted shots on target against Arsenal was yet another showcase of their ruthless efficiency.
New signings Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, Sergio Reguilón and Matt Doherty have been monumental in tidying up the defense. Spurs have attempted most number of pressures in the defensive third resulting in more number of recoveries which has been crucial in terms of initiating those quick counters. Along with the returning fan favourite Gareth Bale, all the players have settled well into the squad. Mourinho’s preference on experience over to youth has been evident yet again at Spurs. But even then he has managed to give the core players ample playing time while also utilizing all his available resources.
One major concern for Spurs, however, can be the fact that they have massively overperformed on their xG this season. According to understat, Tottenham have scored 23 goals from just 17 expected goals, overperforming by six goals. Even in the derby, they scored 2 goals from only a 0.4 xG, it’s simply ridiculous at the moment. And they rank fifth on the xPTS (expected points calculated on the basis of xG) table. These kinds of overperformances are rarely sustainable and a drop of form might be on the cards in near future.
Artera’s Arsenal
Desperation. Be it allowing David Luiz to play against Wolves despite his awful collision, or whipping 42 desperate crosses in a single match, or even most recently forcing Thomas Partey to get back in the field in spite of his injury only for it to worsen, Arsenal’s season has been only filled with desperation. The only positive -if that can be considered a positive- Arsenal could take away from the derby was that they had higher possession. But as Jose fittingly mentions, “Possessions are only for poets, philosophers.” It has no real significance if there’s no end product to it.
Arsenal’s end product- chances creation -has been just dreadful this season. According to fbref, Arsenal rank 15th, coincidently same as their league position, in terms of goal creating actions per 90. They haven’t been able to fix their creativity issues that have persisted for so long. Against Spurs, the team struggled largely due to the absence of any creative and technically suited player. If only they had someone who could play in the creative no. 10 position and could link up play more effectively. If only! Hmm..
Mikel Arteta has been vocal on how he wants to build the side from the back. And to his credit, the team looked much more solid during the post lockdown run of matches. Addition of Thomas Partey and his magnificent technical attributes should have strengthened their defense further but they just look completely lost right now. Arsenal currently have the least number of attempted tackles+interception per 90 in the league as well as some of the worst numbers in terms of pressures. A clear sign of lack of dedication and organization in the defence. As a result, chances have dried up in the front and they rarely offer any kind threat from the counters. To further add to it, Aubameyang, the player who single handedly carried the entire team throughout last season, has suffered a massive dip in form. And even if they were to create chances, their execution has been blunt.
As compared to Mourinho, Arteta hasn’t been able to find a perfect balance in the team and has continued to experiment with his team set up frequently. Looking at the players distribution in terms of age and playing time, it can be easily identified that the squad is nowhere near to being an ideal one. They seem to lack a diverse set of players that are suited to play in an Arteta system so he has to make constant adjustments. And most of the players are either yet to enter their peak plying players or are reaching their twilight years.
The underlying numbers (xG, xPTS, PSxG) too point out the same thing. And Arsenal do not look as if they will turn it around soon. However, Mikel Arteta has at least shown some kind of direction which has been missing for quite some time now. His tenure isn’t even a year old and there have been a good number of indications to suggest he must be given enough time to build onto what he has started. Although for the Gunners, that road looks to be a long and bumpy one indeed.